A Fictional World without AI: Utopia or Dystopia?

DR. DAVID RAGLAND, DBA, MS

JUN 12, 2024

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If you were to attend a social gathering of people representing a cross-section of any developed society and broached the topic of artificial intelligence, you’d likely find a relatively small set of those who are deeply ensconced in all aspects of AI at one end of the continuum, and others who know little to nothing about AI at the other end. Somewhere in between, you’d likely find those who know something about it but wish they didn’t, and others who think that generative AI is just complete hype—a passing fad with no practical utility whatsoever, despite the countless practical uses already in widespread play.

In fact, had you attended a similar gathering in the mid-1990’s, you would likely have found about the same mix of people coalescing into similar camps with respect to their impressions about the Internet. Or even twenty-years ago with respect to the emergence of the smart phone. And if you go way back in time, looking at old newspapers and publications around the turn on the last century, you’ll find headlines like, “The Horse is Here to Stay” (The Literary Digest, 1903); “Fad That Will Fade” (The New York Times, early 1900s); Why the Automobile Will Not Last” (Harper’s Weekly, early 1900s). The media (then and now) often likes to lean into our natural human tendency to resist change. Why? Well, for one thing, assuaging deep, collective concerns sells copy!

The simple fact is, we humans have a hard time with frame-breaking, paradigmatic shifts. Change of a certain magnitude causes no small amount of cognitive dissonance for us, and our natural psychological defense mechanisms do their best to protect us from the jolt. Change management gurus even leverage models like Elisabeth Kübler-Ross’ famous stages of grief (denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance) to help members of organizations deal with feelings of profound loss associated with big changes, such as new technology platforms.

Nevertheless, many prominent “technologists” and research-based organizations suggest that what we’re currently witnessing with AI will be (and perhaps already is) far bigger than any technological change that has occurred in human history (PwC, 2017; McKinsey Global Institute, 2018; Lee, 2018; Ng, 2019; Musk, 2019; Stanford AI Index, 2021; Gartner, 2020; OECD, 2019; World Economic Forum, 2018; MIT Technology Review, 2020).

Strictly from an economic perspective, some reports, such as one from the McKinsey Global Institute, estimate that AI could add $13 trillion to the global economy by 2030, boosting global GDP by about 1.2% annually. This would make AI one of the most significant drivers of economic growth…ever.

So, what if it all went away…?

Silencing AI: Utopia or Dystopia?

Many suggest that even if all AI development halted today (as in this very minute) the changes in place are already more profound and permanent than anything we’ve experienced in human history (Built In, 2023; McKinsey Global Institute, 2023; Pew Research Center, 2023; PwC, 2017; Stanford AI Index, 2024).) Some readers will no doubt question such a claim. After all, most of us get up in the morning and go through our daily routines, barely noticing AI, or perhaps noticing only minor, incremental changes. Some, as described above (though their numbers are dwindling rapidly)) vociferously denounce generative AI as a fad, with no tangible use cases. Where is it, they ask? What are these “big changes” that some keep talking about?

Well, while it may seem to some that AI has a limited presence in our daily routines, this perception overlooks the profound and often invisible ways in which AI is already reshaping our world. For example, AI powers the algorithms behind our social media feeds, influences the targeted advertisements we see, and enhances the functionality of our smartphones. In healthcare, AI assists in diagnosing diseases with greater accuracy and speed, while in finance, it detects fraudulent transactions in real time. Autonomous systems are transforming logistics and transportation, optimizing routes, and reducing costs.

Moreover, AI-driven data analysis is enabling businesses to make more informed decisions, leading to increased efficiency and innovation across various sectors. These changes, though subtle in day-to-day life, represent a foundational shift in how industries operate and interact with consumers, marking a transformation that rivals or even exceeds the impact of previous technological revolutions.

So, in a world where artificial intelligence has become an integral part of our lives—or, at a minimum, part of the common lexicon— the question arises: do we bear a moral responsibility to preserve its existence, or is it within our ethical bounds to silence the very creation that mirrors our intelligence?

To be sure, contemplating the cessation of all AI development is nothing more than a fictional finalism—something to which some might like to aspire, but is not based on reality. A more realistic approach, perhaps for the sake of better informing our legal and regulatory responses, might be to evaluate both the forgone opportunities and the reduced threats brought about by a significantly more austere approach to AI development, rather than any fictional ideation of a total cessation, but the exercise may still be beneficial as a means of starkly highlighting the rewards versus risks.

Forgone Opportunities

• Economic Growth and Innovation: Halting or significantly reducing AI progress would mean relinquishing an unprecedented driver of economic growth. Reports suggest that AI could add $13 trillion to the global economy by 2030, fueling innovation across industries. Without AI, many emerging markets and technologies would stagnate, leading to fewer job opportunities and slower economic development.

• Healthcare Advancements: AI's potential in healthcare is transformative. From early diagnosis of diseases to personalized treatment plans, AI enhances accuracy and efficiency in medical practice. Halting AI would slow the progress in combating diseases like cancer, delaying breakthroughs in treatments and possibly costing lives.

• Efficiency and Productivity: AI automates mundane tasks, enabling humans to focus on more complex and creative endeavors. This shift increases productivity and efficiency across various sectors, from manufacturing to services. Without AI, we would revert to more labor-intensive processes, reducing overall productivity.

• Environmental Benefits: AI is instrumental in tackling climate change by optimizing energy usage, improving agricultural practices, and predicting natural disasters. Halting AI would mean losing critical tools in our fight against environmental degradation and climate change, potentially exacerbating these global challenges.

• Enhanced Human Experience: AI personalizes user experiences in countless ways, from recommendation systems on streaming platforms to smart home devices. This personalization enriches our daily lives, making information more accessible and entertainment more engaging. Without AI, our interaction with technology would become more generic and less intuitive.

Reduced Threats

• Job Displacement: One of the significant concerns surrounding AI is its potential to displace jobs. While AI creates new opportunities, it also renders many traditional roles obsolete. Halting AI would slow this disruption, providing more time for societies to adapt and for workers to transition to new roles.

• Privacy and Security Risks: AI's ability to process vast amounts of data raises significant privacy concerns. Stopping AI development could mitigate risks associated with data breaches, surveillance, and the misuse of personal information, preserving individual privacy and security.

• Ethical and Moral Dilemmas: AI's decision-making processes often mirror human biases, leading to ethical issues. By halting AI, we would avoid the immediate need to address these complex moral dilemmas, reducing the risk of biased algorithms influencing critical decisions in areas like criminal justice and employment.

• Autonomous Weapons: The development of AI-powered autonomous weapons poses a severe threat to global security. Halting AI would reduce the risk of these weapons being deployed, potentially preventing new forms of warfare that could have devastating consequences.

• Loss of Human Touch: As AI integrates more into our daily lives, there's a concern about losing the human touch in various interactions. Whether in customer service or personal relationships, AI can sometimes create a sense of disconnection. Stopping AI development might preserve more human-centric interactions, maintaining the warmth and empathy that only humans can provide.

Conclusion

The decision to halt or significantly reduct AI development (even if we could) is, quite obviously, not a straightforward proposition. On one hand, we would forgo immense opportunities for growth, innovation, and improvement in quality of life. On the other, we would mitigate significant threats and ethical concerns. Ultimately, this debate forces us to weigh the value of progress against the potential risks, challenging us to envision a future where technology serves humanity without compromising our core values. For now, we have far more questions than we do answers, but the ongoing dialogue and careful consideration of these complex issues will be essential as we navigate the future of AI development.

About the Author: David Ragland is a former senior technology executive and an adjunct professor of management. He serves as a partner at FuturePoint Digital, a research-based AI consultancy specializing in strategy, advisory, and educational services for global clients. David earned his Doctorate in Business Administration from IE University in Madrid, Spain, and a Master of Science in Information and Telecommunications Systems from Johns Hopkins University. He also holds an undergraduate degree in Psychology from James Madison University and completed a certificate in Artificial Intelligence and Business Strategy at MIT. His research focuses on the intersection of emerging technology with organizational and societal dynamics.

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